Quarterly Excess Death Rate Analysis

Quarterly Excess Mortality Analysis

We obtain quarterly excess deaths estimates by aggregating in quarters, data that is based on our weekly analysis of excess deaths.

In order to estimate weekly excess mortality we perform a 2-step approach to estimate the baseline deaths. The first step is by estimating the trend in death rates using annual data as described in our methodology papers, while using method 2C.

The second step is to estimate weekly excess deaths by comparing deaths or death rates in a given week with the average death rate, which is computed using the average weekly frequency of deaths over a period of N-years (typically 5 to 10 years depending on the data availability). By using both methods in conjunction we obtain a trend adjusted and week of year adjusted estimate for excess mortality.

A quarterly analysis of excess deaths allows us to then use different metrics to estimate seasonally adjusted pattern in excess mortality. For example, we can compare excess mortality in Q1 of 2022 versus Q1 of 2021 to observe the impact of the vaccination policy on excess mortality.

Quarterly Evolution in Excess Mortality vs Vax.

The following chart shows the quarterly (annualised) excess mortality from 2020 to 2023, for different age groups. The Covid-19 vaccinations data (right hand scale) refers to the total accumulated doses at the end of each quarter, as a percentage of the respective age group population.

The user can specify the age group.

  Quarterly excess mortality, from 2020 to 2023.

Excess Mortality - Comparative Metrics

In this section the user can have a more detailed look at quarterly excess mortality by allowing for comparing different metrics over time and age group, as well as visualising the individual vaccine dose rollout.

Quarter Comparison of Excess Mortality,
by age group

The following chart allows the user to perform quarter to quarter comparisons in excess mortality during 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023, for the different age groups.

This chart is particularly interesting to investigate excess mortality in seasonally equivalent periods in different years. The vaccine penetration rate for the end 0f 2021 is also shown.

The interactive chart allows the user to specify the desired comparison quarter.

  Quarter comparison of excess mortality for different age groups.